Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. The Won/Dollar Exchange Rate Models and Estimation Methods
 1. Exchange Rate Determination Models
 2. Time Varying Coefficient(TVC) Models of Exchange Rate Determination
 3. Forecasting by Long Horizon Regression
 4. Bootstrapping

Ⅲ. Empirical Results
 1. Unit Root and Co-integration Test
 2. In-sample Explanatory Power
 3. Out-of-Sample Forecasting

Ⅳ. Conclusions

Appendix 1. contents of Data

References