I. Introduction

II. A Quick Glance at the Crisis

III. Deeper Look : Structural and Long Term Factors

IV. Deeper Look : Cyclical and Short-term Macroeconomic and External Factors

V. Deeper Look : Quantitative Examination of the Role of Strong Exchange Rate

VI. After the Crisis : Prognosis

VII. After the Crisis : Policy Dilemma

VIII. Conclusion

References