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KERI Bulletin

KERI Economic Bulletin (July 2009 No.57)

09. 7. 17.

한국경제연구원


'09 Annual Growth Rate Projected at -1.9%


The national economy in 2009 is expected to grow -3.9% in the first half and 0.0% in the second half. The annual growth is expected to be -1.9%, a 0.7 percentage point upward adjustment from the -2.6% projected in March this year, which reflected the effect of the supplementary budget.


Foreign exchange effect alleviated the extent of export contraction in the first half. Pump-priming policy for economic conditions, including supplementary budget, and base effects in the second half are likely to lead improvement of the annual growth.


In the final demand sector, owing to fiscal expansion for SOC, construction investment is expected to post positive growth (1.5%) in the second half following a 1.2% growth in the first half.


However, the recovery trend of private consumption is likely to be limited (-0.7% in the second half) due to worsening labor market conditions as the restructuring continues.


Facility investment is expected to decline further, falling about 12% in the second half due to a lack of facility investment pressure, low operating rate, difficulties for enterprises to secure funds, etc.


Current Account Surplus to Contract but Inflation to Remain at 2% Level


The current account will continue a surplus in the second half following a significant surplus (US$20.8 billion) in the first half. Nevertheless, the surplus scale is expected to shrink sharply to US$2.6 billion in the second half, affected by a weakening U.S. dollar and oil price hike (US$55 in the first half to US$75 in the second). Meanwhile, inflation rate is expected to rise in the fourth quarter due to international oil and raw materials price hikes, but remain at a stable 2% level in the second half with a fall in won-U.S. dollar exchange rate offsetting certain aspects of the price push factors.


Won-U.S. Dollar Fx Rate Forecasted at 1,350 Won in the 1st Half and 1,230 won in the 2nd Half


Due to instability in the real economy and the financial sector, the won-U.S. dollar exchange rate maintained a high level averaging 1,350 won in the first half. However, the exchange rate is expected to average 1,230 won to the dollar in the second half due to such factors as stabilization of the financial market, weakening of the dollar and current account surplus.

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