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KERI Bulletin

KERI Economic Bulletin (Nov. 2011 No.66)

11. 11. 18.

한국경제연구원


Growth for ’12 Projected a 3.5%, Lower than ’11 (3.8%)


The growth of the Korean economy is expected to decline to 3.5% next year, as export growth is likely to slow due to the financial crisis in major advanced countries, deeper retrenchment of newly emerging nations like China, etc.


Furthermore, domestic demand, including consumption and investment, will remain weak, affected by the fiscal retrenchment policy, interest rate hikes, weaker real estate market conditions, etc.


Meanwhile, a downward adjustment was made in this year's growth projection to 3.8%, 0.1 percentage point lower than previously forecasted.


Consumer Price Growth to Fall to 3.4% in ’12


Consumer price growth is likely to decline to 3.4% in 2012 from 4.4% in 2011, due to declines of oil and raw materials prices following the slowdown in the world economy and base effects.


Current Account Surplus to Contract, Won-USD Fx-Rate to Decline Slightly


The current account surplus is expected to shrink considerably to US$14.4 billion in 2012 from this year's US$23.1 billion due to import growth surpassing export growth, expansion of the service balance deficit, etc. Won-U.S. dollar exchange rates will gradually decline in the second half of next year to reach an annual average rate of 1,080 won in anticipation of stabilization of the global financial crisis and domestic economic recovery amid a global dollar weakening due to such factors as downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, maintenance of ultra-low interest rates and delay in U.S. economic recovery.


Europe’s Financial Crisis Highlights Importance of Stable National Debt Management


Owing to comprehensive agreements, the European financial crisis overcame a major hurdle but it will take considerable time to resolve it fully. Meanwhile, low growth in Europe caused by the crisis and its negative impact on the Korean economy seems unavoidable. Through the European financial crisis, Korea should learn lessons, including stable management of national debt, development of risk management capability and securing of policy reliability and greater cooperation with countries in the region.

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