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KERI 경제동향과 전망

국내외 경제동향에 대한 심층분석과 전망을 통한 정책대안제시 보고서입니다.


KERI 경제동향과 전망

KERI Economic Bulletin (Jan. 2011 No.63)

11. 1. 21.



Korea’'s Economic Growth for 2011 Projected at 4.1%

Major factors that may contribute to slower Korean economic growth in 2011 are U.S. public and private debt adjustment, Europe's fiscal retrenchment, stagnation of the global economic recovery following China's belt-tightening policy and normalization of domestic macroeconomic policy tone.

Considering that the nation’'s average growth rate over the past 10 year (2001~2010) is 4.2%, however, the projected growth rate of 4.1% for 2011 can be viewed as robust.

Affected by the lessening of economic stimulus effects, interest rate hikes and asset value declines, private consumption may slow but the slowdown is unlikely to be significant owing to improvements in employment and wages in 2010. Facility investment, which showed a high rate of growth of about 23% in 2010, is expected to fall to the 7% level, influenced by mitigation of investment pressure on the heels of sharp investment growth in 2010, slowdown in the economic recovery, interest increases, restructuring, and other factors. The construction investment slowdown is expected to continue in 2011, but is likely to record positive growth owing to the recovery of non-residential and civil engineering construction sectors.

Current Account Surplus to Reach US$14.5 Bil. in 2011

Export growth may plummet to single digit due to a demand decline following fiscal retrenchment and household debt adjustment in advanced countries, China’'s conversion to retrenchment, Kore’' foreign exchange currency appreciation and intensified competition in export markets. Imports also may slow, affected by the economic and export growth slowdown, but may record higher growth than exports

owing mainly to unit price rises. Consequently, the current account surplus is projected to contract to US$14.5 billion in 2011 from US$27.3 billion in 2010.

Consumer Prices to Rise 3.2%, Won/USD Fx Rate to Appreciate to 1,095 Won

Consumer price growth may show an upward trend, affected by the positive GDP gap, China-originated inflation, increases in domestic public fees, etc., but the trends of a slowdown in international oil price hikes and won currency appreciation are likely to limit consumer price growth. Influenced by global dollar weakening, and increases in base rates, the won-U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected to appreciate gradually, falling below the 1,100 won level.

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