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KERI 경제동향과 전망

국내외 경제동향에 대한 심층분석과 전망을 통한 정책대안제시 보고서입니다.


KERI 경제동향과 전망

KERI Economic Bulletin (Dec. 2016 No.86)

17. 1. 31.


Korea’s growth rate for 2017 expected to be 2.1%, lowered by 0.1%p than the previous forecast

The growth rate is projected to be 2.1% in 2017, lowered by 0.1%p than the previous forecast in September. In accordance with domestic, as well as global factors, the 2017 forecast is adjusted downward by 0.3%p than 2016. While in a domestic sense, the effectiveness of monetary, fiscal and foreign exchange rate policy are all regarded as limited, the heightened uncertainty of world growth also influences the growth rate. The weak global trade is likely to sustain in 2017 owing to the high possibility of epidemic anti-globalization trend, ignited by the US election. French presidential election is to be held in between this April and May, and while for Germany, it’s between September and October. To make matters worse, the additional fiscal expenditure is now regarded as obsolete.

Again in 2017, low price, low interest rate & abundant trade surplus will prevail

The overall consumer price is projected to soar marginally by 1.2% in 2017 compared to this year’s 1.0%. Amid the restriction of crude oil price increase and the appreciation of KRW, sluggish growth will likely lower the probability of consumer price to rise. The trade surplus is forecast to slide down to US$93.5 billion in 2017, compared to US$97.5 billion this year. The huge current account surplus is likely to be on a gradual decline as the good’s import loss and service deficit grow. USD/KRW will rise gradually in the 1st half in 2017 owing to the influence of Trump’s election and European political uncertainty, which is projected to gradually revert down in the next half to 1,152 won reaching to the year’s average. The market interest rate (Corp AA-, 3yr) is expected to rise by small margin as 2.3% in 2017 from 1.9% in 2016 for US tapering shall have a limited effect on the Korean market, growth rate of the Korean economic growth is weakening, and low inflation rate is expected to sustain.

Korea’s social conflict index ranked in the 3rd place among OECD member countries; a distinct vision is in an urgent need to alleviate the conflict between genders and generations

The social conflict index, assessing the conflict between genders and generations, as well as conflict management capacity is gauged along with other OECD members. Korea ranked at 3rd for having intensified conflicts between genders and generations, and lacking a government’s conflict management capacity. The bright point is that the conflict management skill of government has improved consistently since 2004. Thus, if a long term vision to assuage the conflict between genders and generations were being suggested, Korean society can fully assimilate the ability to manage the social conflicts.

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